Water Market Update: July 2026

Where the Goulburn sits

This update covers the Goulburn system (Zone 1A) only — the zone where most of our clients hold and trade, and the one carrying the tightest opening position of the new water year.

WY2026/27 opened on 1 July with a Goulburn high-reliability seasonal determination of 15% — the third lowest opening allocation in the Goulburn since 2011. Only the drought openings of WY2016/17 (8%) and WY2019/20 (2%) started lower. Low storage in Lake Eildon and a dry finish to last season set that starting point, and it is why allocation held firm at $350-400/ML into the close of WY2025/26.

Since then, a wet June and July have helped. The most recent determination stepped the Goulburn up by 15 points to 30% — a genuinely encouraging start to the inflow season. Current allocation is trading around $340-360/ML (see live Zone 1A prices), broadly steady with where it finished last season.

The question that decides the year is whether those inflows hold.

The climate signal leans dry

The seasonal climate outlook points drier still. An El Nino is underway, with forecasters pointing toward a strong event, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely through winter and into spring. That combination is historically associated with below-average inflows into the Goulburn catchment — the setup the market has been pricing since late last season.

It is worth keeping the caveat in view. A strong El Nino was also declared in 2023/24, and meaningful spring rainfall arrived regardless. A declared event lifts the probability of a dry finish; it does not guarantee one. The wet start to this season is a live example of why the opening determination is a floor, not a forecast.

The swing factor is Lake Eildon. July through October are the catchment's major inflow months, and inflows across that window will need to at least match recent levels to carry the season toward an average outcome. If they fade as El Nino conditions establish, the determination stalls.

Two scenarios worth planning around

Of the inflow scenarios we model against the 30% starting point, the two most likely right now are Dry and Average. They diverge sharply.

• Dry — mirror last season's inflows. If catchment inflows track WY2025/26, the Goulburn finishes the season near 63%. That would be the lowest final Goulburn allocation since the Millennium drought. A finish that low keeps allocation scarce and would very likely push prices materially higher as the irrigation season progresses and demand builds.

• Average — the wet start continues. If solid rainfall continues through July, August and September — even if El Nino conditions set in afterward — the Goulburn would likely see steady determination increases through to a full allocation around December. That path most likely eases prices back toward the levels seen early last season.

The gap between those two outcomes, on price, is the whole decision.

Holding versus selling

Holding allocation into this season is effectively a bet that dry conditions continue. That is not an unreasonable bet — the market has already priced in some probability of El Nino delivering below-average inflows — but it is a directional one. There is real upside in price if the catchment dries out through the major inflow months of July to October, and real downside if the current wet spell carries on.

For a holder who wants to take some risk off the table, one balanced approach is to sell your opening allocation into current prices ($340-360/ML) and keep the balance of the season's determination exposed to the upside and downside from here. That structure has a natural hedge built in: the dry (upside) case delivers higher prices on lower volumes, while the wet (downside) case delivers lower prices on higher volumes, so the two partially offset. The right split depends on your water needs, your cash position, and your read on the season — which is exactly the conversation to have before you commit.

None of this is a substitute for a live quote. Prices move daily, and a strategy that fits a dryland grazier holding a small parcel is not the one that fits a permanent-planting operation that has to secure water regardless of price. Talk to a broker about your position before you trade.

Frequently asked questions

What is the current Goulburn allocation for WY2026/27?

The Goulburn opened WY2026/27 at 15% on 1 July and, after a wet start, the most recent seasonal determination is 30%. Determinations are updated by the Northern Victoria Resource Manager through the season — typically around the 1st and 15th of each month during the main determination period. Check the Victorian Water Register or call us for the latest figure.

Why did the season open so low?

A 15% opening reflects low carryover storage in Lake Eildon after a dry WY2025/26 finish. It is the third lowest Goulburn opening since 2011 — only the 2016/17 and 2019/20 drought seasons opened lower. A low opening does not lock in a low final, but it does mean the season starts with less water in reserve and more dependence on winter and spring inflows.

What is the Goulburn allocation price right now?

Goulburn (Zone 1A) allocation is trading around $340-360/ML, broadly steady with where it finished WY2025/26. Prices move daily with each determination and with seasonal demand — see current Zone 1A prices or contact us for a live quote.

Should I sell my allocation now or hold?

Holding is a bet that dry conditions persist and prices rise; selling now locks in current strength. Many holders take a middle path — selling the opening allocation into current prices and keeping the balance of the season's determination exposed to the market. The right choice depends on your water needs and your view of the season. See our guide on when to sell water, or talk to a broker.

Does a declared El Nino guarantee a dry season?

No. A strong El Nino combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole raises the probability of below-average inflows, but it is not a certainty. A strong El Nino was declared in 2023/24 and spring rain still arrived. This season's wet June and July are a reminder that the opening determination is a starting point, not a forecast.

Key dates

• 1 July: WY2026/27 opened. Goulburn determination 15%. First Goulburn-to-Murray IVT tranche opened.
• July: Determination lifted to 30% on early-winter inflows.
• August-September: El Nino confirmation window and the BOM spring outlook — the period that decides the dry-versus-average path.
• 15 October: Second Goulburn-to-Murray IVT tranche opens.

Disclaimer: This market update is general information only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or water trading advice. Water allocations and prices are subject to seasonal conditions, government policy, and factors beyond anyone's control, and no one can predict price. Past prices are not a reliable indicator of future prices. Seek independent professional advice before making trading decisions.

Talk to a broker about your Goulburn water strategy. Read the June 2026 update for the close of last season, or the full WY2026/27 outlook.