Water Market Update: June 2026

Market snapshot

Three weeks from season end, WY2025/26 is done in all but name. Trade volumes have thinned to a trickle, and the final numbers are effectively locked in. Zone 1A finishes the season at a VWAP of $259/ML — the highest annual average since WY2019/20 and roughly two and a half times the WY2024/25 figure.

Zone	Final season VWAP ($/ML)	Season volume (GL)
Zone 1A (Greater Goulburn)	$259	247
Zone 6 (Murray above Barmah)	$268	116
Zone 7 (Murray below Barmah)	$283	151
NSW Murray	$238	401
SA Murray	$292	103

Late-season trade is anything but quiet. Carryover demand ahead of 30 June has driven Zone 1A spot to $330-350/ML in early June — the highest prints of the entire season, and roughly 75% above the ~$190/ML the year opened at. The usual June glut of expiring water has not appeared: with the WY2026/27 outlook this dry, holders with carryover headroom are carrying, and buyers who need certainty are paying up now rather than betting on the opening determination.

For the price drivers behind these numbers, see our water pricing guide.

Storage levels — entering winter low

Storage	Current %	Volume	As at	Trend
Lake Eildon	~45%	~1,500 GL	early June	Stabilising
GMW regional storages (combined)	44%	—	3 June	~9pp below last year
Hume Dam	22%	663 GL	mid-May	Bottoming
Dartmouth Dam	65.3%	~2,520 GL	2 June	Stable

Sources: GMW supply level updates, MDBA River Murray weekly report, NVRM storage data.

The headline: Eildon will open WY2026/27 in the mid-40s — GMW's regional storages were 44% full at 3 June, about nine percentage points below the same time last year. Irrigation drawdown has stopped, but early-winter inflows have been weak. The catchment needs a wet July-September to change the season's trajectory, and the forecast does not favour one.

Hume is the system's sore point: 22% (663 GL) is a thin starting position for the Murray system, even with early winter inflows beginning to arrive. Dartmouth's 65% remains the insurance policy.

Allocation outlook for 1 July

The NVRM publishes the first seasonal determination for WY2026/27 on 1 July. Based on current storage and conservative inflow assumptions, we expect:

• Goulburn HRWS: opening in the 30-40% range (opened at 31% last year and finished at just 73%)
• Murray HRWS: opening in the 35-45% range, supported by Dartmouth
• LRWS (both systems): 0%, with little prospect of any LRWS allocation this season

A low opening determination is already priced into forward conversations, but the market reaction on 1 July still matters: an opening below 30% on the Goulburn would push early-season prices toward the top of our range.

Carryover — the last call of the season

Whatever is in your allocation account at 30 June rolls into WY2026/27 automatically as spillable water, up to 100% of your water share volume. The decision that closes on 30 June is hold-versus-sell, and this year it is unusually one-sided: with Eildon in the mid-40s, spill risk is negligible, and carried water enters a season where opening prices are likely to exceed current spot.

Two cautions. First, check your cap — anything above 100% of entitlement volume expires worthless at midnight on 30 June. Second, if you need the cash for winter inputs, this June's market is unusually strong — buyers are paying $330-350/ML right now; do not let a bullish outlook override your cash flow.

Our end of water year checklist walks through everything to verify before 30 June.

IVT status

Goulburn-to-Murray IVT is closed for the season. The first WY2026/27 tranche opens on 1 July, and we expect it to attract immediate demand: Murray-system buyers facing a 22% Hume will look to Goulburn supply early. If you plan to move water from Zone 1A to the Murray next season, be ready in the first weeks of July rather than waiting for spring.

Weather and seasonal outlook

BOM's June indicators are little changed from May, which is itself the story — the drying signal has not broken:

• ENSO: El Nino likely emerging — roughly an 80% chance during June-August and near or above 90% through November; most models suggest at least a moderate event
• IOD: Neutral for now (index -0.34 in early June); model probabilities of a positive IOD rise above 80% by September
• Rainfall outlook (June-August): Below-average likely across the southern MDB
• Temperature outlook: Above average

This is the same alignment that preceded WY2018/19. Our full scenario analysis is in the WY2026/27 price outlook.

Entitlement market

Permanent market activity continues to firm. Zone 1A HRWS is transacting in the $3,200-3,800/ML range — up from $3,000-3,500 a quarter ago — as buyers move to lock in supply ahead of a dry season. The historical pattern holds: entitlement values lag allocation prices by 3-6 months, so a hot WY2026/27 allocation market would likely push HRWS values toward their WY2019/20 peak above $4,000/ML.

Frequently asked questions

What was the final Zone 1A price for WY2025/26?

The season volume-weighted average price (VWAP) finished at $259/ML, with the season's highest prices printed at the very end — early-June trades at $330-350/ML as carryover demand peaked. It is the highest season average since WY2019/20.

Should I carry over or sell before 30 June?

With storages low, a dry outlook, and negligible spill risk, carrying is strongly favoured for anyone who will need water next season — but the cap (100% of water share volume) and your cash flow position both matter. Talk to a broker before the deadline.

What will water cost next season?

Our central case for WY2026/27 is a Zone 1A VWAP of $300-380/ML, with the season likely opening near current levels ($300-340/ML) — the market is already pricing next season's scarcity. The bull case (confirmed El Nino) is $400-500/ML. See the full WY2026/27 outlook for scenarios and triggers.

When is the first allocation announcement?

The NVRM publishes the opening seasonal determination for WY2026/27 on 1 July, then updates fortnightly through the irrigation season.

Key dates

• 30 June: Water year ends. Carryover positions lock in. Excess above cap expires.
• 1 July: WY2026/27 opens. First NVRM determination. First Goulburn-to-Murray IVT tranche opens.
• August-September: El Nino confirmation window. BOM spring outlook.
• 15 October: Second IVT tranche opens.

We publish the next update in early July, covering the opening determinations and the first trades of the new season.

Disclaimer: This market update is general information only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or water trading advice. Water prices are subject to seasonal conditions, government policy, and factors beyond anyone's control. Past prices are not a reliable indicator of future prices. Seek independent professional advice before making trading decisions.

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