Zone 6 Water Trading Explained: Vic Murray (Above Choke)

Zone 6 is the Victorian Murray above the Barmah Choke. It covers the Murray River system from Hume Dam downstream to the Barmah-Millewa Forest narrows — encompassing the irrigation districts of Swan Hill, Kerang fringe, Robinvale, and the northern edge of Sunraysia. The zone trades approximately 100-200 GL of temporary allocation per year and is the second most active Victorian trading zone after Zone 1A.

The system and its storages

Zone 6 draws from the Murray system — primarily Hume Dam (3,005 GL) and Dartmouth Dam (3,856 GL). Combined, these storages total nearly 6,900 GL — roughly double Eildon's capacity. This larger storage buffer is why Murray HRWS allocations typically reach 100% earlier than Goulburn HRWS.

In WY2025/26, Murray HRWS hit 100% by November 17. Goulburn HRWS only reached 80% by season end. The Murray system simply has more water to draw on when inflows are moderate.

As of April 2026, Hume sits at 27.1% (critically low) while Dartmouth provides buffer at 64.7%. Both are well below last year. Dartmouth will be drawn upon to supplement Hume — it is the backstop that keeps Murray allocations above Goulburn allocations in most seasons.

Zone 6 falls under Victorian water law (Water Act 1989). All trades are processed through the Victorian Water Register (VWR), managed by DEECA. NVRM announces allocations fortnightly during the irrigation season.

The Barmah Choke — why it defines this zone

The Barmah Choke is a 70-kilometre stretch of the Murray between Tocumwal and Echuca where channel capacity drops to approximately 8,000 ML per day. The river passes through the Barmah-Millewa Forest — Ramsar-listed wetland — and narrows dramatically.

Zone 6 sits above the Choke. This is its strategic advantage. Water held in Zone 6 can be delivered locally without needing to pass through the bottleneck. When the Choke is running at capacity during peak summer demand, Zone 6 irrigators are unaffected for local delivery.

For traders, above-Choke water has optionality: it can serve local demand, and when the Choke is not constrained, it can also be delivered downstream to Zone 7 and beyond. This flexibility is reflected in pricing — Zone 6 water sometimes trades at a slight premium to Zone 1A during dry seasons because it has both local utility and downstream delivery potential.

Zone 6 also includes the Torrumbarry, Tresco/Nyah, Robinvale, Red Cliffs, Merbein and FMIT (First Mildura Irrigation Trust) irrigation districts.

Who trades here

Almonds are the dominant and fastest-growing water user in Zone 6. The Murray corridor from Swan Hill through to Robinvale has seen massive almond expansion since 2010. At 10-14 ML/ha and with mature orchards worth $30,000-50,000/ha to establish, almond growers create an inelastic demand floor — they buy water at almost any price before losing trees. Estimated almond demand across the entire MDB now exceeds 2,400 GL/year and continues growing as plantings from 2018-2022 reach full bearing.

Citrus — the Sunraysia/Mildura region is Victoria's primary citrus zone. Navels, mandarins, lemons. 8-12 ML/ha, permanent plantings that cannot be fallowed.

Table grapes and dried fruit — Mildura and Robinvale. Fresh export table grapes at 7-10 ML/ha. Dried fruit (sultanas, currants) declining as plantings shift to higher-value crops.

Wine grapes — the Murray Darling wine region. Bulk wine production. 5-9 ML/ha. Some growers receiving poor returns and removing vines, releasing water back to the market.

Dairy — still significant in the Zone 6 corridor, particularly around Kerang. Consistent water demand through summer.

The common factor: Zone 6 has the highest concentration of permanent tree crops of any Victorian zone. These growers cannot reduce water consumption in a dry year — they buy or their trees die. This creates a structural price floor that did not exist 15 years ago.

Pricing dynamics

Zone 6 allocation prices generally track Zone 1A but with differences:

| Water Year | Zone 1A VWAP | Zone 6 VWAP | |------------|-------------|-------------| | WY2022/23 | $36/ML | $37/ML | | WY2023/24 | $68/ML | $57/ML | | WY2024/25 | $104/ML | $113/ML | | WY2025/26 YTD | $258/ML | $267/ML |

In wet years, both zones trade at similar levels. In dry years, Zone 6 can trade at a slight premium due to:

• Murray system reaching 100% allocation earlier (more certainty)
• Interstate trade connectivity (NSW Murray water can flow into Zone 6 under the 200 GL cap)
• Delivery flexibility above the Choke

Zone 6 prices averaged $267/ML in WY2025/26 — $9/ML above Zone 1A. The premium widens during peak demand when the Choke becomes binding and downstream (Zone 7) buyers are willing to pay more for above-Choke water that has delivery options.

Interstate trade

Zone 6 is directly connected to the interstate market in a way Zone 1A is not. NSW Murray water (General Security) can be tagged and traded into Victorian Zone 6 under the Murray-Darling Basin Agreement, subject to the 200 GL annual net cap.

When the NSW-to-VIC cap is open, this adds supply to Zone 6 and can moderate prices. When the cap nears exhaustion, Zone 6 becomes more isolated and prices can spike relative to NSW Murray — spreads of $100/ML have been observed.

Interstate transfers take longer than within-state trades — typically 5-15 business days depending on both state registries and the MDBA's coordination process. Exchange rates may apply to account for transmission losses.

Carryover

Same Victorian rules as Zone 1A: carry over up to 100% of your water share volume. Automatic, no application needed (but complete the LROS declaration by approximately 1 June or lose it).

One difference: Zone 6 carryover is deemed held in Murray storages (Hume/Dartmouth), not Eildon. Historically, the Murray system has slightly lower spill frequency than the Goulburn system because of the larger combined Hume+Dartmouth buffer. In practice, Zone 6 carryover faces somewhat lower spill risk than Zone 1A carryover in years when Eildon is near capacity.

In the current environment (Hume at 27%, Dartmouth at 65%), spill risk for Zone 6 carryover is negligible. Carry with confidence.

How to trade

Register with the Victorian Water Register. Hold a water share or arrange to trade through an existing account.

Contact a broker with your volume requirements. We source allocation from the Zone 6 market or, where appropriate, arrange interstate transfers from NSW Murray. Zone 6 trades freely with Zone 7, Zone 1A (via Goulburn-to-Murray IVT when open), and interstate.

Settlement for within-zone allocation trades: 1-3 business days. Interstate: 5-15 business days. Entitlement transfers: 4-8 weeks.

Check our water pricing guide for live Zone 6 pricing.

Indicative only. Not financial advice. Water trade involves risk of principal loss.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Barmah Choke and how does it affect Zone 6?

The Choke is a narrow section of the Murray (8,000 ML/day capacity) between Tocumwal and Echuca. Zone 6 sits above it, meaning local water delivery is unaffected by the bottleneck. The Choke matters when you want to move water downstream to Zone 7 — during peak demand, that flow may be constrained.

How are Zone 6 allocations announced?

NVRM announces Murray HRWS allocations fortnightly during the irrigation season, starting 1 July. In WY2025/26, Murray hit 100% by November 17. Updates are published on the Victorian Water Register website.

Can I trade between Zone 6 and Zone 1A?

Yes, but it flows through the Goulburn-to-Murray IVT mechanism. Zone 1A water moving to Zone 6 is subject to the annual IVT cap (three announcement windows). Zone 6 water can also trade interstate to NSW Murray under the 200 GL cap.

Why does Zone 6 sometimes trade at a premium to Zone 1A?

Zone 6 benefits from a larger storage buffer (Hume+Dartmouth = 6,900 GL vs Eildon = 3,334 GL), earlier allocation announcements, and interstate trade connectivity. It also has delivery flexibility above the Choke. These factors can create a premium in dry years.

What is the outlook for Zone 6 in WY2026/27?

Hume is at 27% and Dartmouth at 65% — both well below last year. If El Nino confirms and winter inflows remain below average, Zone 6 prices could run $250-400/ML. Dartmouth provides some buffer, but not enough to offset a genuinely dry season.